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View Poll Results: Do you think that HD DVD / Blu Ray will be a successor to DVD
Yes, it will replace standard DVD 92 37.10%
No, it will not replace standard DVD 43 17.34%
I believe it will be a niche format 113 45.56%
Voters: 248. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 28-01-2008, 22:04   #1
megatron
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Is HD-DVD/Blu-ray an inevetible successor to dvd?

I've read some have said it will end up a niche format like laserdisc, but seeing as dvds work on Hi Def players anyway (unlike vhs on laserdisc), will it be more likely to become the next mainstream format once the "war" is over and prices are a bit cheaper?
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Old 28-01-2008, 22:09   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by megatron View Post
... but seeing as dvds work on Hi Def players anyway (unlike vhs on laserdisc)...
I knew I was barking up the wrong tree when I tried to get my tape of BMX bandits to play on my laserdisc...

On topic... Maybe.

I can't see most people I know buying into this unless the industry switched us to HD in the same was it did with DVD and wdiescreen TV's...

Last edited by degeneration; 28-01-2008 at 22:09.
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Old 28-01-2008, 22:13   #3
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I'll save someone else from saying it

"Can you change your title? HD DUD has already lost. LOL LAMO ROLF"
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Old 28-01-2008, 22:14   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by degeneration View Post
I can't see most people I know buying into this unless the industry switched us to HD in the same was it did with DVD and wdiescreen TV's...
....which they will, they need the constant flow of cash
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Last edited by Roberto; 28-01-2008 at 22:15.
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Old 28-01-2008, 22:22   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by degeneration View Post
I knew I was barking up the wrong tree when I tried to get my tape of BMX bandits to play on my laserdisc...

On topic... Maybe.

I can't see most people I know buying into this unless the industry switched us to HD in the same was it did with DVD and wdiescreen TV's...
All new TV's being HD as standard now is kind of similar though isn't it?

Last edited by megatron; 28-01-2008 at 22:22.
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Old 28-01-2008, 22:23   #6
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I've said several times that Hi-def formats will occupy the niche that LD did, and I honestly believe it.

Backwards compatibility isn't necessarily a good thing for a format as the public will almost always choose price over quality, and an awful lot of people can't "honestly" see the difference in picture quality - I can, but then I'm a geek. Hi-def DVD will most likely never reach the same price as standard definition as the studios will always want to charge a premium for the superior content.

After all, VHS had a couple of potential successors - S-VHS and D-VHS. For those who care to remember, here is a link to an article where Bill Hunt was spooging all over it - http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/dvhs/. There's a perfect example of how a technically "superior" format can be casually ignored by the public - okay, it didn't have the mainstream studio support that BR does, but to the general public, the hi-def DVD formats don't have a stand-out feature - it just looks like a normal DVD to them.
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Old 28-01-2008, 22:29   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by megatron View Post
All new TV's being HD as standard now is kind of similar though isn't it?
Arrrrghhh!

They've done it again...
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Old 28-01-2008, 22:33   #8
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Interesting article here:

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.a...leid=CA6525812

"High-definition DVD player sales during the fourth quarter spiked well above standard DVD at the comparable point in the earlier format’s life cycle."
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Old 28-01-2008, 22:35   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LooneyJetman View Post
I've said several times that Hi-def formats will occupy the niche that LD did, and I honestly believe it.

Backwards compatibility isn't necessarily a good thing for a format as the public will almost always choose price over quality, and an awful lot of people can't "honestly" see the difference in picture quality - I can, but then I'm a geek. Hi-def DVD will most likely never reach the same price as standard definition as the studios will always want to charge a premium for the superior content.

After all, VHS had a couple of potential successors - S-VHS and D-VHS. For those who care to remember, here is a link to an article where Bill Hunt was spooging all over it - http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/dvhs/. There's a perfect example of how a technically "superior" format can be casually ignored by the public - okay, it didn't have the mainstream studio support that BR does, but to the general public, the hi-def DVD formats don't have a stand-out feature - it just looks like a normal DVD to them.
Good post well made
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Old 28-01-2008, 22:35   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thescrounger View Post
Interesting article here:

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.a...leid=CA6525812

"High-definition DVD player sales during the fourth quarter spiked well above standard DVD at the comparable point in the earlier format’s life cycle."
Maybe because they are around £120 now and £500 then? My Sony back then didn't play PS3 games either.
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Old 28-01-2008, 22:51   #11
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Wonder how many people here think it will be a niche format then? Any chance of a poll splob?
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Old 28-01-2008, 22:55   #12
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Done!
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Old 28-01-2008, 22:57   #13
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The only problem with the poll as that HD is some guise will ultimately replace DVD and TV at some point so it's not going to be a good gauge unless I lay down a time limit for it to become a commercial success.
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Old 28-01-2008, 23:52   #14
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The only way that one of the new formats will replace DVD is by "stealth", because yes, the fact is that the general public probably won't rush out to upgrade.
When production of regular DVD players is gradually phased out, and a hi-def player is basically all you can buy, and for £50; that's when it will become mass-market, and only then.
The new player will still play everyone's regular DVDs, they won't just vaporise.
Then releases on HD DVD or Blu-ray will become more prominent and will be promoted more. People will then give the new format a go, on their new-fangled player and their HDTV.
SD DVDs will gradually be phased out, and like the players, there will be no real choice but to buy on the hi-def format.
None of which will happen overnight, it will take years, but I do think it will happen.
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Old 28-01-2008, 23:57   #15
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Not so sure about this.

The upgrade from VHS to DVD was one box.

Upgrade from DVD to HD not only means a change of box, but also of TV. I know that HDTV's are being pushed more and more but without a viable HD broadcast why would most people pick up a HDTV?

The upgarde is too much for most people. HD receiver, HD player, HDTV. Its a harder sell.
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Old 29-01-2008, 00:21   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by degeneration View Post

Upgrade from DVD to HD not only means a change of box, but also of TV. I know that HDTV's are being pushed more and more but without a viable HD broadcast why would most people pick up a HDTV?
Because you can't buy CRTs anymore?
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Old 29-01-2008, 00:29   #17
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Because you can't buy CRTs anymore?
OK. Looking at Dixons as a store Joe Public would go to for a TV, you are looking at near on £300 for a decent sized TV (And I'm talking a small 22"). I don't know too many people who aren't techy who could stomach paying out for that.

The price needs to drop a lot for JP to buy that + a HD source to go with it.
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Old 29-01-2008, 00:31   #18
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DVD's are going to be around like CD's are... Blu-Ray is just too locked down to be the next DVD. The reason DVD became the beast it is; wasn't because of the Panasonic, Sonys, Samsungs, Denons of this world... it was because of £10 supermarket specials. My grandparents got some hideous piece-o-junk dvd player from Aldi for that £10. All they needed was for it to autoswitch to the scart channel when turned on and be told the pictures on buttons were the same as their CD player. They are the final hurdle and the point where money REALLY get's to epic levels. Those kinds of people will never own a HD player... they will only get a HDTV because you can't buy anything else these days. Degeneration they have actually stopped selling SD TV's in nearly all the shops now.

So I think those most (or at least the semi tech-savvy) people will holdout/jump on to HD when some one comes along as does downloads properly. That's the way it's going to go. They have to offer EVERY film available and let people watch it on whatever they want.
I priced up how much it cost me for lovefilm over the last 2 years and it's worked out at about £2 a film/game. Much more than I thought. If one of those devices can offer it the same or cheaper, I might be tempted.
Ideally they'll have to an online library of some sort. Which is free to access from anywhere, including mobiles etc. I can imagine you buying/renting your movie or TV show and then have it in your library permanently for a one off fee.. or in there for a week for a rental cost. Then you can download it to where ever.. plus store it on your system (or burn out) if you purchased it. If you delete it you can stream it or download it again whenever you want.
Since you don't have to store the content or have shelves full of discs.. you can just request a different version encoded for whatever device you want to play it on.
Apple have updated the appletv but I don't think it's quite there yet, even after that update... it needs a DVD ripping option (all the legal crap needs sorting out as well!) and a disc drive.
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Old 29-01-2008, 00:33   #19
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Quote:
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OK. Looking at Dixons as a store Joe Public would go to for a TV, you are looking at near on £300 for a decent sized TV (And I'm talking a small 22"). I don't know too many people who aren't techy who could stomach paying out for that.

The price needs to drop a lot for JP to buy that + a HD source to go with it.
TVs have always been expensive. 5 years ago a 32" CRT would easily cost £500.

A 32" LCD will cost around the same price now.
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Old 29-01-2008, 00:35   #20
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Definitely a niche for the foreseeable future. If Warner honestly thought backing Blu would drive consumer uptake they were wrong. Yes, it has driven the odds heavily towards Blu, but the tech-savvy people (ie non-early adopters who would actually be prepared to pony up the cash) know that there are newer profile BRD players coming and will hold off their purchase where as had they had gone red, the players were already in the "affordable" region and the spec was finished. For every person who decided to go Blu after the Warner announcement, there were more stating that even though they believed Blu would win they weren't going to buy a player until the 2.0s were out and affordable.

Yes, BRD sales are higher, but how much of this is due to people playing with their new toy (UMDs anyone). Yes, there are plenty of people on here who watching all their films through the PS3 and good for them, but if all those people who've bought Pirates or Spiderman suddenly get bored of paying over the odds or frustrated that they can't watch the films without the PS3 stop buying them we'll be right back to square 1. Factor in that the world is heading into recession and suddenly dropping £250 and £15+ per film doesn't sound so appealing.
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