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Old 29-04-2020, 13:52   #1
jockosjungle
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Death of the Cinema?? Odeon Refuses to Show Universal Films

I'm sure we're all after a little discussion and thought this deserved it's own thread as it's a bit Covo19 but a bit the sort of things we should be discussing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52468881

Odeon is banning all Universal films on the basis that they're currently selling premium home streams of the Trolls film, it's done pretty well, and in the future these will be done on the same day as a film is released in the cinema.

Whilst I know we all love the cinema experience, I can see this really catching on from a home perspective. It's bound to be cheaper and easier if there are a family of 4.

This does seem to come round every so often, I recall that the cinemas complained about them wanting to change the video releases from 12 to 16 weeks after the cinema.

On a more general note are we going to see CV19 changing much of what we do?

I guess the movie industry has to do something to keep some money rolling in, I also saw that today the Oscars would allow streamed films.
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Old 29-04-2020, 13:56   #2
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I think you'll see the cinemas being bought by the studios, or the other way round.

Movie theatres can't survive without unique content.
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Old 29-04-2020, 13:57   #3
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Cinemas, I assume, survive mostly on the food and drink rather than ticket sales.
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Old 29-04-2020, 13:58   #4
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They'll sort it out. The film companies should know that if they premier anything online on VOD it will just mean a 4K or 1080p version will get out to the pirates on the same day.

Don't think the demand for watching Trolls World Tour from pirates was huge - put a Bond film on however and it will be a feeding frenzy.
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Old 29-04-2020, 14:07   #5
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Originally Posted by basegreen View Post
I think you'll see the cinemas being bought by the studios, or the other way round.

Movie theatres can't survive without unique content.
Amazon might buy them, studios used to own the theatres but this article explains why that stopped and how old Trump wants to change it back ffs

https://www.theatlantic.com/entertai...ruling/602311/
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Old 29-04-2020, 14:19   #6
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The big question is whether the studios will push hard to maintain their excessive slice of the ticket sales whilst also hoovering money from their simultaenous digital release. I mean, if the studio say "ok we'll release it via streaming same day, but we'll only take 20% of the ticket sales instead of 50%" then that might give the cinema chains an incentive to embrace things. Otherwise (and I really do think the studios will be greddy enough to continue to demand their usual slice if not greater, because they're ******* idiots) then I full support Odeons decision, cinema chains are going to have to fight tooth and nail and fight dirty to survive the coming covid years.

EDIT: I should add as well that anyone who goes to the cinema alone should be very afraid of streaming taking off and potentially replacing the theatre, because you can guarantee the studios will immediately start jackine the price for streaming up to £20+ to make up for the fact that they are not earning money from each member of the family having to buy a ticket for admission. There's no other way I can see for them to maintain that $100million opening weekend blockbuster model.

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Old 29-04-2020, 14:59   #7
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Originally Posted by allan View Post
Cinemas, I assume, survive mostly on the food and drink rather than ticket sales.
Yes but they survive on the food as people go to the cinema. Nobody goes to the cinema because they fancy paying £6 for some nachos or a bag of popcorn.

We got a proper pictures in the FI, I liked it, it was fairly cheap and well done, shame when it all closed down.
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Old 29-04-2020, 15:04   #8
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I think they are probing the best move. From both sides. The theatres are attacking the first studio to change direction.

Warner Bros have moved their slate, but left Tenet in July. If that does not do well, it will be a key moment. It's potentially one of the most important film releases of the century. It could kill a lot of chains if the studios use it as an example to reform the entire distribution model.

A cinema trip in July will likely require a mask, staff doing clean downs, halved seating... that all adds up in costs and puts people off.
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Old 29-04-2020, 20:04   #9
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The big question is whether the studios will push hard to maintain their excessive slice of the ticket sales whilst also hoovering money from their simultaenous digital release. I mean, if the studio say "ok we'll release it via streaming same day, but we'll only take 20% of the ticket sales instead of 50%" then that might give the cinema chains an incentive to embrace things. Otherwise (and I really do think the studios will be greddy enough to continue to demand their usual slice if not greater, because they're ******* idiots) then I full support Odeons decision, cinema chains are going to have to fight tooth and nail and fight dirty to survive the coming covid years.

EDIT: I should add as well that anyone who goes to the cinema alone should be very afraid of streaming taking off and potentially replacing the theatre, because you can guarantee the studios will immediately start jackine the price for streaming up to £20+ to make up for the fact that they are not earning money from each member of the family having to buy a ticket for admission. There's no other way I can see for them to maintain that $100million opening weekend blockbuster model.
Wonder Woman made 821 million dollars worldwide; I'm not sure if that is after the movie theatres took their cut but will assume it is.

That would at say $20 a download equate to 41,055,000 downloads to avoid those who sail the high seas; it would have to be released simultaneously in all markets.

To get that prestigious 100 million weekend you'd need 5 milltion downloads

Is there any precedent for such download numbers?
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Old 29-04-2020, 20:56   #10
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IMO there is absolutely no feasible way you can run a cinema safely with COVID going around. Sure you can have staff cleaning everything and only open up theatres at a fraction of capacity so the visitors can see more than 6ft apart, but at the end of the day you've typically got a long narrow corridor that you walk down when you step trhough the doors of a theatre. You just need one person to cough once and potentially the virus is hovering there for up to 3hrs. That's people walking in and walking out.
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Old 29-04-2020, 21:00   #11
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Wonder Woman made 821 million dollars worldwide; I'm not sure if that is after the movie theatres took their cut but will assume it is.
Why on earth would you assume that? It's obviously NOT after they take their cut! It's box office gross, ie how much in ticket sales, not how much after every percentage is stripped away except the studio cut!

On something like Wonder Woman you're looking at probably around 40-60% of the US gross going to the studio, then worldwide it's a different fraction depending on whether they've sold the international distribution rights. So when it comes to streaming, all that **** is cut out and the studio can see a high percentage of the cut back and the same percentage across the world. The question is how much a platform like Netflix will take from the pie, but the other massive factor is that on streaming you are selling per household and per device, not per person. That severely restricts the consumer base.

Plus $100million was me being pretty conservative, obviously the big even movies like your Avengers Endgame is seeing significantly more than that opening weekend.

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Old 29-04-2020, 21:06   #12
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I cancelled my Cineworld Unlimited account last week because I realised I haven’t been to the cinema since July last year... I would much rather watch a film at home!
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Old 30-04-2020, 12:20   #13
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Trolls 2 news

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/trol...an-trolls.html

Could strengthen Universal's hand
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Old 30-04-2020, 12:26   #14
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That's peanuts compared to what a popular film would make at the cinema though so I don't see cinema's going away any time soon.
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Old 30-04-2020, 12:53   #15
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What share of box office income do cinemas keep?

Empty cinema screenThe keen-eyed among you will have noticed in the previous graphic that although our film grossed $75 million, we only received $34 million. This is because before we get our hands on box office income, there are two big deductions.

Firstly there’s tax. Sales tax varies wildly between countries, so I used a figure of 10% for this example (in the UK it’s currently 20%). Some countries also apply other taxes, e.g. India charges an Entertainment Tax of between 2% and 50%, depending on the type and scale of film.

The other big deduction is the amount the cinema (a.k.a. exhibitor or movie theatre) keeps. This is a rather contentious figure as different corners of the industry disagree vehemently as to what split is normal. When I interviewed over 1,000 film professionals in 2014, the average figure according to distributors was 49% but exhibitors reported it as 43%.

When I interviewed UK cinema staff in 2015, over a third claimed that high ticket prices were due to cinemas handing over most of the money. A common refrain was that sweets were expensive because cinemas “only get 10% of ticket prices so they have to make some money somewhere“.

In order to get to the bottom of this figure, I have spoken to a number of people ‘in the know’ in both distribution and exhibition in the UK. Some were quite senior and I am confident that the figure I built up is an accurate reflection of the UK market as it stands today. Here are the salient points......

The vast majority of mainstream movies released in the UK work on an income split, whereby the exhibitors and distributors split the ticket income after VAT (UK sales tax) is removed. Other models are sometimes used, including a ‘House Nut’ where the first £x of income is kept by the exhibitor after which income is split, or ‘Four Walling’ where distributor pays a fixed fee for the screen and keep all ticket sale income (minus handling fees).
There isn’t one universal figure. The split between exhibitors and distributors can be different for each film and is a point of negotiation when discussing the deal.
The split changes over time, in favour of the exhibitor. Distributors can usually negotiate a better deal in the opening week or two and so the longer a movie plays, the more the exhibitor will keep from each ticket sold. For example, a distributor may receive 55% of ticket sales in weeks one and two, 50% in week three, 45% in week four, right down to a base of 30% in the final weeks.
Only the biggest movies commonly claim more than 50% of income. When they do, it is almost always from a major distributor and only in the first week or two of the film’s run. As one expert put it “a 55% split in favour of the distributor is generally regarded as a great deal and some recent major releases have achieved that“. I understand that recently a certain expensive sci-fi movie from a major studio managed to secure 65% of income in its opening week but this is regarded as exceptional.
Distributors of independent films typically receive between 28% and 35% of income. This means that for some ‘specialist’ titles (art house films, small foreign language films, documentaries, etc), the exhibitors are keeping up to 72% of the ticket sales. That said, most of these titles have a minimum guarantee attached, to prevent the distributor from getting pennies. A typical deal is “35% vs an MG of £100”, meaning that the exhibitor must pay the distributor either 35% of the box office or £100, whichever is the greater.
The UK has among the highest exhibitor splits in the world. This is partly due to the relatively high cost of media advertising in the UK and also due to historic deals between British cinemas and distributors.
The power in the sector is shifting – in both directions. As more movies than ever before are being pushed onto the UK theatrical market, exhibitors have increasing power to demand better terms from all but the biggest movies. However, at the top-end, the tentpole studio movies are bigger than ever before (budgets and marketing spend), meaning distributors releasing major mass-appeal titles are able to secure much better than average terms in opening weekends’. The smaller films are being squeezed by exhibitors and the big films are squeezing the exhibitors.
https://stephenfollows.com/how-a-cin...s-distributed/

50% to exhibitor is huge

Take a $1 billion movie, that's 500 million saved. At $20 a rental, they need to convince 25 million people to pony up. Considering the likes of 6 Underground on Netflix can pull 80 million views.... no one is paying specifically for that movie, but that gives an idea of the scale of eyeballs out there. It's not a stretch to think a Marvel picture could get tens of millions to pay a fee.
I'd imagine that Apple and Google are salivating right now. They know exactly the answer to this question.

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Old 30-04-2020, 12:58   #16
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Simultaneous releases are inevitable in the medium term, so now's a good time to do the deals and sort out the logistics surely?
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Old 30-04-2020, 13:04   #17
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Simultaneous releases are inevitable in the medium term, so now's a good time to do the deals and sort out the logistics surely?
Yeah, I think you are right. I think the studios realise they need to do this else fail. The cinemas are basically in a position of weakness. The studios will take the hit of not being in chain x or y if they can make that much on screening.

Honestly, I think it will become a niche industry, showing classic films or independent film.
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Old 30-04-2020, 13:08   #18
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Simultaneous releases are inevitable in the medium term, so now's a good time to do the deals and sort out the logistics surely?

Indeed, they'll be testing the waters, seeing what people want to do. That's why I think Warners have left Tenet in it's place. There will be places open in July, but the public might not be keen. Also the pubic are poor right now with so many out of work in the US, that's a big factor.

Tenet is a good baseline to measure. Nolan has a solid track record, his films are not as front loaded on the opening weekend. They review well and will also sell on home video with a decent shelf life, so they'll continue to earn cash should the theatre sales take a serious hit.
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Old 30-04-2020, 14:52   #19
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All I hope is that when society gets back on track, the really big event movies get a theatrical re-release of sorts. Something like Tenet will definitely lose something for going straight to VoD.

Quote:
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Honestly, I think it will become a niche industry, showing classic films or independent film.
That will never happen because you can't have a cinema industry that only shows classics and independent films, because hardly anyone would actually go, and all the cinemas will go out of business in a heartbeat. You might have one of two cinemas in London and perhapsone cinema operating in the big cities like Manchester managing to scrape buy, but even that is doubtful.
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Old 30-04-2020, 18:36   #20
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https://youtu.be/Nnd67egAiNU

Think that about covers it.

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