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Old 04-02-2007, 16:41   #1
chris21
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HD DVD-How will we know...

When do we think we can safely say "HD DVD has taken off"?

When they're lining the shelfs in HMV?

Or something else?
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Old 04-02-2007, 17:55   #2
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When they outnumber DVDs I imagine.
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Old 04-02-2007, 18:16   #3
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Maybe. But I remember DVD's being in the minority against VHS, but yet still very popular.
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Old 04-02-2007, 18:20   #4
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Come to think of it I can't see all these HD TV sales being down to just Xbox 360 and Sky HD.

Surely a lot of people will take the plunge eventually.
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Old 04-02-2007, 19:08   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chris21
Maybe. But I remember DVD's being in the minority against VHS, but yet still very popular.
I assume you're talking about either HD format when you say "HD DVD"? I think it depends on how you define "taken off", it means different things to different people. For DVD I said "When ASDA start selling them" but I think Blu-ray discs have already appeared in some ASDA's. I think when we see titles in the top 10 of the all-format chart it's probably safe to say that format is here to stay
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Old 04-02-2007, 19:20   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by camaj
but I think Blu-ray discs have already appeared in some ASDA's.
they have, alongside HD-DVDs.
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Old 04-02-2007, 19:22   #7
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camaj has tuned his eyes out to HD-DVD's
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Old 04-02-2007, 19:41   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LouBarlow
camaj has tuned his eyes out to HD-DVD's
I don't know what you're saying really. I didn't see either format in ASDA's
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Old 04-02-2007, 20:28   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chris21
Come to think of it I can't see all these HD TV sales being down to just Xbox 360 and Sky HD.
HD TV sales are purely down to the public wanting nice flat TVs that take up less space than a CRT (which has the "other half approves" factor in it's favour also ). That they are HD is a bonus. Some are clued up enough to know they should get an HD-Ready set even if they have no idea what HD is.

Mass take up of players will only occur when you can buy them for £200 or less.
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Old 04-02-2007, 20:41   #10
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Like DVD, things won't take off until you can buy a player in tescos for £150.
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Old 04-02-2007, 22:37   #11
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When I say "Take off" I don't mean it in the sense where HD DVD is as common in peoples homes as a washing machine. I just don't want to get myself a HD DVD player then find out the format has dissapeared laserdisc style.

I was looking for a sign so I could say "right, that's it I'm buying a player".
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Old 04-02-2007, 23:06   #12
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At the moment there's no way you can be sure which will win (or if either actually take off more than just a niche format like laserdisc).

I suppose you could look at the Betamax vs VHS war to see a similar situation. I can't remember when VHS really took off in that respect, although I seem to recall it was just the format the video rental shops stocked more of. Probably not a fair comparison though as in those days everyone just wanted a video recorder. Today everyone has a DVD player. In fact most people would probably be more likely to go out and buy a DVD recorder than an HD player of some sort.
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Old 04-02-2007, 23:09   #13
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It will take off when Blu-Ray is no longer I imagine.
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Old 05-02-2007, 00:15   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chris21
When I say "Take off" I don't mean it in the sense where HD DVD is as common in peoples homes as a washing machine. I just don't want to get myself a HD DVD player then find out the format has disapeared laserdisc style.
So you want to know when it's safe to buy a player? Well first of all you've got to wait for the format battle to be resolved! By the time it is, there's a good chance that the winning format won't be going anywhere. I guess the only way to know that is looking at sales, how much space are shops giving it over DVD? I remember when Virgin Megastore revamped their video dept. and gave half the floor to DVD. Until then, there were only one or two shelving units
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Old 05-02-2007, 12:40   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeadKenny
At the moment there's no way you can be sure which will win (or if either actually take off more than just a niche format like laserdisc)....
One interesting difference to laserdisk is in pricing - I never bought LD but I believe the disks were very expensive, whereas the new HD formats are only a little more expensive than SD, and this is the very early days. Regardless of which format wins out in the end, I think that we will see a gradual shift over to HD from SD, rather than the very fast take up that DVD had over VHS.
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Old 05-02-2007, 13:00   #16
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I really wanted a laserdisc player, only because the films were usually widescreen as standard, but the £30+ per film made it not an option, and, besides, you could usually pick up VHS laersdisc copies for a few pounds if you knew where to look.

I dont think the shift to HD will happen overnight either, and think it'll take many years and I think it far more likely that both BR and HD will become obselete long before they achieve dominance. I don't need a player to be able to legitimately download an HD version of Superman Returns - all I need is a lot of hard drive space and a few days in which to download it in.

Download times and HD space are two things that seem to be expanding almost daily, compared to the seeping introduction of physical HD media.

After everything i've said before to the contrary, I am starting to think that this is the way we will watch and collect movies in the future. Instead of downloading to an drive, you'll be able to download to a 'blank' disc of some description - be it and HD or BR disc or some completly new format. It'll be 'pressed' with a label by your machine if you want and for a few extra poundises, you'll be able to download (purchase online) cases, labels and all the supplements you want.*

*or perhaps not, who knows?
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Old 05-02-2007, 13:10   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KRW
I really wanted a laserdisc player, only because the films were usually widescreen as standard, but the £30+ per film made it not an option, and, besides, you could usually pick up VHS laersdisc copies for a few pounds if you knew where to look.
Which goes to show that image quality was never a priority, presentation was. It will be an uphill battle for the HD formats to find a strong place in the market IMO.
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Old 05-02-2007, 20:16   #18
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My 2p worth is that HD-DVD and Blu-Ray may perhaps never take off, at least not in the same way that DVD did.

The improvement between DVD and the higher quality formats is not as the big as the leap in quality that DVD was over VHS.

Joe Punter in the street is happy with the quality that DVD has and will be for many years to come.

I reckon HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will always remain 'niche' formats in the same way that DVD-Audio and SACD are.

The only way that either of the formats could ultimately succeed is for dual dvd and hd-dvd/blu-ray on the same disc to become a regular occurrence with the eventual removal of dvd players from general retail sale but that's years and years away before that will happen in the same way that they removed VHS players from general retail sale.

DVD as a format has the market penetration that the superior quality formats I doubt will ever achieve if you believe the perception that the public only mass accept a new standard every twenty years or so.
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Old 06-02-2007, 08:23   #19
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I'd just be happy for HD DVD and DVD to live together. It would be pretty unfair to get rid of DVD, but I can't see that happening for some time yet anyway.
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Old 06-02-2007, 16:11   #20
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I agree with most people on here, that at the moment we are going to be stuck with 2 HD formats, I've invested into both in a way I normally wouldnt, via consoles, with an HD add on for my 360 and a US PS3 20Gb, but for me this is the cheapest way to get all the HD films that I like with outlaying out massive amounts for a 1st gen Blu Ray or 2nd Gen HD DVD player. I agree that most people are happy with standard Dvd's and why not as most films go down to about £4-5 within a few months of release. What gets me is that Sony & Toshiba can co-develop a chip set with IBM together but cant agree on a HD disc format, which sucks for all of us and this will ultimately put back the uptake of HD Films on Disc on a mass scale. I think it will take Universal to crumble and bring out blu rays so that all studios are producing blu rays, as I cant see disney, fox and mgm ever bringing out HD or Dual Format Hd's ever, and for the players themselves to come below £150, which if you compare it to DVD took about 2 years, by which time alot of the 1st gen bugs should be well passed.
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