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Old 29-05-2009, 09:33   #981
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Friends of mine put their house on last weekend having spotted a potential bargain. They had 14 viewings at an open day on the Saturday and 3 offers that evening. One of the losing offerors then tried to gazump a few days later above asking price.

All fuelled by the chronic lack of supply at the moment is my guess.
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Old 29-05-2009, 09:33   #982
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Hmm, I'm looking to buy (with my GF) and am quite interested in following things. We have a large deposit so are in a good position but would obviously like to get something for as little as possible.

Am looking at a house which is up for £230k but has been on the market since January (using the excellent Property Bee via Firefox). Wondering whether it's worth putting in a cheeky £205k offer or similar.
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Old 29-05-2009, 09:34   #983
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For once, even the spokesman for Nationwide admitted that this is a blip, and that prices will continue to fall. They've got so few transactions occuring at the moment that the figures (positive or negative) are largely meaningless.

I can't see prices rising in any real sense for some time to come - you only have to look at the wider economy to see that there is no way they can. And good job too - I'd like my son to be able to own a home at some point without assuming that I'll be giving him all of my life savings to fund it.

The real lemmings are the idiots that think that ridiculous house price inflation is a good thing.
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Old 29-05-2009, 09:36   #984
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Originally Posted by mjb1975 View Post
Hmm, I'm looking to buy (with my GF) and am quite interested in following things. We have a large deposit so are in a good position but would obviously like to get something for as little as possible.

Am looking at a house which is up for £230k but has been on the market since January (using the excellent Property Bee via Firefox). Wondering whether it's worth putting in a cheeky £205k offer or similar.
I wouldn't call £205k cheeky - that's only just over 10% off. Cheeky would be something like £175k!

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Old 29-05-2009, 09:40   #985
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Am looking at a house which is up for £230k but has been on the market since January (using the excellent Property Bee via Firefox). Wondering whether it's worth putting in a cheeky £205k offer or similar.
Go lower. No harm in that, they'll only say no and you can get a feel for how desperate they are....
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Old 29-05-2009, 09:49   #986
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Hmm, did think that, although this is outer London so I have a feeling prices tend to stay a bit higher than perhaps elsewhere.

During our viewing, they did say they're moving due to their son getting a college place somewhere else so, assuming others don't move for it, they could get even more desperate towards August!
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Old 29-05-2009, 09:54   #987
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We have 1 sold and exchanged, 1 sold waiting to exchange and 1 that's just gone on the market in my road this year. The prices have dropped by around 10 to 15% from the peak which seems like a good time to buy now, sit tight for a couple of years and ride out the recession and then wait for prices to increase so you don't have to worry about negative equity.

The people on sites like housepricecrash.co.uk don't want to stop house price inflation, they seem angry they missed the boat last time around.
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Old 29-05-2009, 10:10   #988
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The people on sites like housepricecrash.co.uk don't want to stop house price inflation, they seem angry they missed the boat last time around.
Wow, never been to that site before. Some of the posts are unbelievable
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Old 29-05-2009, 10:17   #989
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...sit tight for a couple of years and ride out the recession and then wait for prices to increase so you don't have to worry about negative equity...
And hope you don't lose your job, and that rising inflation doesn't cause interest rates to get so high you can't afford the mortgage any more, and that Captain Darling's reckless spending doesn't mean that tax rates have to go up.

In the 90's recession, prices bumped along the bottom for a good couple of years. I don't see any reason why it will be different this time. I was going to buy this summer, but I think I'm going to wait at least six months or so. Might even wait until after the election to see what happens then.
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Old 29-05-2009, 10:22   #990
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And hope you don't lose your job, and that rising inflation doesn't cause interest rates to get so high you can't afford the mortgage any more, and that Captain Darling's reckless spending doesn't mean that tax rates have to go up.

In the 90's recession, prices bumped along the bottom for a good couple of years. I don't see any reason why it will be different this time. I was going to buy this summer, but I think I'm going to wait at least six months or so. Might even wait until after the election to see what happens then.
Tax revenue is going to have to increase no matter what happens after the election. I bought my first house in 1996 so have plenty of equity in my house, even after the recent drops. For people who are worried I would wait to buy but as I said, for those who have the right finances in place, there are bargains to be had.
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Old 29-05-2009, 10:34   #991
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Tax revenue is going to have to increase no matter what happens after the election. I bought my first house in 1996 so have plenty of equity in my house, even after the recent drops. For people who are worried I would wait to buy but as I said, for those who have the right finances in place, there are bargains to be had.
Agreed, and I think that's probably where a lot of the current buyers are coming from - cash rich, requiring smaller mortgages.

I'm just concerned that the false optimism spread by the media when you get reports like this from Nationwide or Halifax are going to draw buyers in. One of the people I work with is already talking about "missing the bottom" and has been to the bank to see how much he could borrow with only a 5% deposit. If he bought now, it wouldn't take many more monthly falls for him to lose that completely.
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Old 29-05-2009, 10:49   #992
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Where I live house prices are just not moving and anything decent is being snapped up within days off appearing on the market.

We found a house we liked but my wife "really" liked it so took on the negotiations and went in low and ended up £5k off their asking price. I didn't want to pay that much £240k anyway so I was glad when they turned it down (saying they have estate agent friends who have told them the market is moving up). they came back 2 weeks ago and accepted our offer. I wanted to lower our offer but the wife wouldn't have it, we could not complete as the mortgage we had "in principle" we didn't get. So again I was glad.

We have now had to drop down to below the £200k price bracket to be guaranteed we can get a mortgage (at a decent rate). Round here you can't find anything decent for under £200k.

Not sure what we are going to do. The market round here has dropped but not by much.
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Old 29-05-2009, 10:56   #993
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I've been watching the market near me and there is no doubt it has picked up in the last two or three months, but that always happens - the spring rush of house-buying.

Other than that, the stock of houses has mostly been sitting around for ages, with few if any price reductions and few sales. A number of houses that have gone under offer on Rightmove have come back again after a couple of months, presumably because the chain has broken down. We seem to be in a bit of a standoff between buyers and vendors, and this news from Nationwide is only going to make that worse.
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Old 30-05-2009, 07:38   #994
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Wow, never been to that site before. Some of the posts are unbelievable
To be fair, though, there is a lot of well informed comment on that site. It is just a shame that it is masked by some of the more 'extreme' views.

I have been an occasional visitor to that site since 2003 and even then they were predicting immediate economic meltdown on the basis that one shop had closed down or there was a free seat in a normally busy restaurant.

Once you get to know who the sensible contributors are it can be a very useful source of economic information and commentary.

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Old 30-05-2009, 07:53   #995
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Houses need to come down in price. Their value has been artificially manipulated over the last 10-15 years to make it look like we have a powerful economy, which we now know is been built on paper money.

Although I should have bought years ago (but wasn't able to at the time) I have been toying with the idea of buying (we are what you would call council scum), but the problem is that you can only have 3-4 times what you earn and on an average house round here I would need to be earning £60-80k pa, which unfortunately I and many others do not.

I am lucky that I can relocate with my job so are looking at moving further up north and rural just so I can get one, which is a crap reason for moving for most people as it would mean they have to change their job.

The other lame duck now is that you need a hefty deposit as many lenders will only give 75-80% of the house value. That's not a problem for me to find the money, but I don't ideally want to fork out that amount as I would rather have that money for financial emergencies and home improvements. 10% I can easily muster, but the lenders are limited and they charge you through the nose on interest.

What happened all those years back is that a house is often treated as an investment rather then a home and that was the beginiing of the end with the housing market, making it unsustainable today.
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Old 30-05-2009, 08:30   #996
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The other lame duck now is that you need a hefty deposit as many lenders will only give 75-80% of the house value. That's not a problem for me to find the money, but I don't ideally want to fork out that amount as I would rather have that money for financial emergencies and home improvements. 10% I can easily muster, but the lenders are limited and they charge you through the nose on interest.

.
It is mortgage finance that is the key. If banks continue with the policy of lending a maximum of 3x income and a maximum of 80% of the house value then the average house price will have to come back to somewhere around 3-4x the average household income in the longer term. There is no other way around it.

There are always exceptions, e.g. people whose parents can afford to buy them a house or give a huge % deposit, but the vast majority of first time buyers will be coming into the market with a small deposit and will need a mortgage based on their income. If a mortgage big enough to buy a house/flat is not available, they will have to rent instead.

Of course, if the banks start lending like they have done up until 2007, it will be very different.
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Old 30-05-2009, 09:37   #997
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I checked Rightmove this morning, and already there are one or two houses that have had their asking prices put up!

My brother-in-law is an estate agent, and I know he despairs when things like this happen. The vendor will have moaned heartily when told what a realistic asking price was & insisted on putting it on higher, it sits there for a few weeks until they begrudgingly knock a paltry amount off, then when some vaguely positive news is reported, they instantly insist on putting the price back up again!

Thing is, an awful lot of people have just chased the market down. If they'd priced realistically in the first place, they might have sold for much more than they will eventually get. Easy for me to say that as a potential buyer of course...
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Old 30-05-2009, 10:13   #998
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Thing is, an awful lot of people have just chased the market down. If they'd priced realistically in the first place, they might have sold for much more than they will eventually get. Easy for me to say that as a potential buyer of course...
There are always going to be two types of seller, those that are forced to sell, and those that are not. The former are the ones that are likely to be chasing the market down, the latter just seem to be sticking their houses on at peak asking price and not accepting any realistic offers.

It is understandable, though. Why would people want to sell their most expensive asset at 20% less than it was 'worth' last year? Most upsizers fail to see the advantage in buying a more expensive house at a 20% discount.
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