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Old 11-12-2020, 17:55   #61
AndyWilson
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Some people (notably Kermode) have been saying simultaneous home releases are inevitable for some time now.
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Old 11-12-2020, 18:50   #62
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The vast majority of the cinema money a movie makes is in the opening 2-4 weeks.* If films are released simultaneously worldwide, then a month later move to streaming services it shouldn't hurt box office too much.


*While there are exceptions to this, such as indie movies which build on word of mouth, they are generally lower budget and thus not as impacted by piracy concerns.
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Old 11-12-2020, 20:05   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by statto View Post
The vast majority of the cinema money a movie makes is in the opening 2-4 weeks.* If films are released simultaneously worldwide, then a month later move to streaming services it shouldn't hurt box office too much.


*While there are exceptions to this, such as indie movies which build on word of mouth, they are generally lower budget and thus not as impacted by piracy concerns.
I'd agree, but it's a tricky equation.. Your 'End Game' tent poles will always get a lot of bums on seats and having a very short window wouldn't impact them too much. However it's the large middle ground of releases, like Villeneuve's previous pictures, where your uncertain and busy punter.. might give it a pass because they've never heard of it and it'll be streaming in a couple weeks. We are already at a point where, only one film can be released each weekend, due to overlap and profit dips short theatrical windows would make this a lot that worse.

I don't think any other studios have gone all in to follow AT&T... Disney did not announce any major changes to their plans in their investor day. They have a lot of Disney+ content in the works, but it's specifically additional to their theatrical plans. There were a couple films which they've moved to +, including a live action Pinocchio, but that could just as well have been because Mulan was badly received. Also they have a large backlog of releases to fit into a limited number of weekends.. they've not changed anything Marvel which was planned to be theatrical.

Disney have been doing VERY well the last few years with Marvel, Pixar, Animation and Star Wars, it would be mad for them to change that right as they've acquired all the Fox IP. They've got some extremely expensive Avatar pictures and an increasing number of Marvel properties collecting dust. If they do anything drastic they'll do better to buy up a theatre chain if any start to properly fold. AMC is apparently on it's last legs. Even Universal have been suspiciously silent, they've been trying to kill theatrical exclusivity for years but I think they've been burnt by the low sales of the streaming options.

There is a lot of talk of whether people will be afraid to go out and the cinemas will start to die off... time will tell.. but I don't think so, people are itching to go out! They can't be kept in. If in April-ish there is a "It's pretty much all clear... but please wash your bloody hands next time". People will be out in their droves. A tent pole picture 3-4 weeks later, in mid May.. people will be out in droves.

Last edited by scoobyood; 11-12-2020 at 20:10.
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Old 11-12-2020, 22:45   #64
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There is plenty of space for 12months of tentpole films to be reallocated further down the line, to suggest that studios can only release one film per weekend is silly talk. Yes it would hurt them to release Dune and Matrix 4 at the same time, but they'd still generate more money in the first week or two than a HBOMax debut AND there's be no piracy to worry about! I've been averaging 120+ films at the cinema for the last couple of years, tentpoles mostly get released in Summer and in the run up to Xmas. There are plenty of weeks in the year when these types of films would only be up against standard releases. Yes it would bury most of these standard releases, but it is entirely doable.

IMO this HBOMax announcement is extremely premature and they should have at least held on for a few more months to see how the vaccine changes the landscape, and I wouldn't be surprised if, in the best-case scenario of a rapid turnaround of the pandemic during 2021 and the reopening of theatres, AT&T decide to drop plans to stream these movies.

Last edited by Shingster; 11-12-2020 at 22:48.
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Old 12-12-2020, 15:25   #65
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So have them bumped up the Dune release date because of this? It was down as being in December 2021, is that still the case?
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